i believe the case for immigration should be made along the lines of dignity, justice, and human rights for all, not simply how they help or hurt the economy. However, it is still important to counter lies made about immigrants when it comes to the money.
Politicians often claim that immigrants are a drain on the economy, particularly when it comes to social services. As Trump recently stated at the RNC Convention: “Democrats are going to destroy Social Security and Medicare because all of these people by the millions are coming in – they’re going to be on Social Security and Medicare and other things, and you’re not able to afford it. They are destroying your Social Security and your Medicare.”
In reality, without a social security number, most undocumented immigrants are barred from most social services, particularly social security and medicare/medicaid. Yet, they often pay into these systems through taxes. However absurd the above claim is, people still believe it.
The actual data provides clarification: both documented and undocumented immigrants benefit the economy.
As this report shows, the Social Security Administration itself looked into immigrants’ affect on Social Security trust funds and found that earnings by unauthorized workers contributed roughly net $12 billion in 2010 (the last time the analysis took place), and that an increasing average annual net immigration will improve the program’s solvency: meaning the net grows larger, the more immigrants come to the U.S.
Unauthorized immigrants contributed a net of $35 billion to Medicare’s trust fund between 2000 and 2011, according to a study published in the Journal of General Internal Medicine.
When it comes to the government’s budget overall, the congressional budget office is predicting net gains from immigration between 2021 and 2026
As migration scholar Austin Kocher recently tweeted, “What are the effects of the 2021-2026 (projected) migration surge on government budgets? Overall quite positive, according to Congressional Budget Office @USCBO, which estimates a $1.2T increase in federal revenue while adding only $0.3T in new expenses.”
“An increase in immigration over the 2021–2026 period boosts federal revenues as well as mandatory spending and interest on the debt in CBO’s baseline projections, lowering deficits, on net, by $0.9 trillion over the 2024–2034 period.”
A study conducted by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy recently found that “undocumented immigrants contributed $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022 – a number that would rise dramatically if these taxpayers were granted work authorization.”
https://itep.org/study-undocumented-immigrants-contribute-nearly-100-billion-in-taxes-a-year/
As a recent study by the American Immigration Council reported, “Immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, pay taxes. Our analysis of the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) found that immigrants in the United States have a combined household income of $2.1 trillion and contribute $382.9 billion to federal taxes and $196.3 billion in state and local taxes, leaving them with $1.6 trillion in spending power.
https://immigrationimpact.com/2024/04/15/immigrants-contribute-billions-federal-state-taxes/
A study from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently found that the net fiscal impact of refugees and asylees was up many billions dollars over a 15-year period. “This means that refugees and asylees contributed more revenue than they cost in expenditures to the government. The net fiscal benefit to the federal government was estimated at $31.5 billion, and the net fiscal benefit to state and local governments was estimated at $92.3 billion..”
On the flip side, this study from the Oxford Review of Economic Policy showed that a reduction in US refugee admissions that started in 2017 has cost the overall US economy today “over $9.1 billion per year ($30,962 per missing refugee per year, on average) and costs public coffers at all levels of government over $2.0 billion per year ($6,844 per missing refugee per year, on average) net of public expenses….Thus the policy of the United States to drastically reduce refugee and asylum-seeker arrivals from 2017 to 2020 might have substantial and ongoing economic consequences.”
https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/38/3/449/6701682?redirectedFrom=fulltext
Excerpt from Dr. Ernesto Castañeda and Carina Cione’s forthcoming book “Immigration Realities.” “Immigrants Do Not Drain Welfare.” American University.
https://www.academia.edu/71117580/Castaneda_and_Cione_Immigrants_Do_Not_Drain_Welfare
Contributions to social services and the federal budget aside, immigrants contribute trillions of dollars to the u.s. economy through their labor and related buying and selling.
Researchers at American University’s Center for Latin American and Latino Studies, recently found that “recent immigrants are a key driver of economic growth in the United States, and Immigrants contributed over $2.2 trillion dollars to the U.S. economy,” and that “this contribution by migrant labor constitutes about 8% of the U.S. GDP.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4740925
https://theimmigrationlab.org/blog/f/immigration-as-the-main-driver-of-economic-growth-in-the-us
Excerpt from Dr. Ernesto Castañeda and Carina Cione’s forthcoming book “Immigration Realities.” “Remittances Do Not Drain Host Countries’ Economies and Are Not Like Foreign Aid.” American University.
What’s more is that if the undocumented population was legalized, “the GDP would rise by $1.5 trillion over the next ten years.”
“In addition, the United States is facing a severe workforce shortage, with workers needed in a variety of industries. Mass deportations would only exacerbate these shortages. Moreover, cumulative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be reduced by 2.6 percent, or nearly $5 trillion over ten years if the 8.1 million undocumented workers were deported. If the undocumented population was legalized, however, the GDP would rise by $1.5 trillion over the next ten years. Finally, the nation’s housing market would be jeopardized because a high percentage of the 1.3 million mortgages held by households with undocumented immigrants would be in peril.”
https://cmsny.org/how-trump-mass-deportation-plan-would-hurt-usa/
Another common lie about immigrant workers regarding the economy is that immigrants steal jobs from citizens, leading to higher unemployment. this couldn’t be further from the truth.
A very recent report by University of California-Davis economists Giovanni Peri and Alessandro Caiumi for the National Bureau of Economic Research, found that “immigration continues to benefit American workers.”
“The study finds that recent increases in immigration to the United States correlate with more jobs and higher wages for U.S.-born workers.”
“Consistently, economists have found that an increase in immigration rates does not cause a drop in wages for U.S.-born workers. Immigrants don’t often compete for the same jobs as the U.S.-born, but instead complement the existing workforce with different skills and specializations. This boosts productivity and, in turn, wage growth for U.S.-born workers.”
“The additional labor also attracts investment, generating economic activity. ‘It becomes clear,’ Peri wrote in 2006, ‘that immigration has a positive effect on the wages of most native-born workers.’”
“Even when these two groups [immigrants and the U.S.-born] have similar education and age, their employment in the labor market shows a significant degree of complementarity, implying that they do not compete for jobs, but rather the employment of one group helps the productivity of the other.”
“Increases in immigrant populations between 2000 and 2019 did not correspond with a displacement of U.S.-born workers. Immigrant workers did not crowd out or take jobs from U.S.-born workers.”
https://www.nber.org/papers/w32389
https://immigrationimpact.com/2024/07/09/immigrants-do-not-take-americans-jobs-wages/
This report from the American Immigration Council shows how the labor shortage in the agricultural industry relies on migrant labor to fill labor gaps.
This report by the Migration Policy Institute explores how immigrant labor will be crucial for meeting labor needs in the near future.
“The country’s 47.6 million workers who are immigrants or the U.S.-born children of immigrants already play a vital role in meeting U.S. workforce needs, with large numbers well positioned to meet future demand.”
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/report-vital-role-immigrant-origin-workers
Beyond the “Black Jobs” Controversy: Immigrants and U.S.-Born Black Workers Share a Growing Jobs Pie
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/beyond-black-jobs-controversy
“An often-overlooked population—college students from immigrant families—are a part of the solution,” Migration Policy Institute (MPI) Senior Policy Analyst Jeanne Batalova and Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration Executive Director Miriam Feldblum reported recently.”
“The U.S. labor force is trending towards a demographic cliff—spurred by low birth rates and an aging population. Automation and artificial intelligence continue to significantly transform the workplace. And the United States is facing growing competition from other countries for international talent. All of these trends underscore the need for U.S. policymakers and higher education and workforce development leaders to deliver a skilled and productive workforce that can adapt to emerging technologies and uphold U.S. global competitiveness.”
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/higher-ed-immigrant-origin-students
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/investing-future-immigrant-origin-students
This study in Texas found that the immigrant population “helped strengthen and grow the already massive Texas labor force, even amidst disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, labor shortage, and supply-chain disruptions to the local, state, and national economies.”
https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/economic-contributions-immigrants-texas
As PBS recently pointed out, “Since Biden took office in early 2021, the number of foreign-born Americans who are employed has risen by about 5.6 million. But over the same period, the number of native-born Americans employed has increased by almost 7.4 million.”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-rnc-speech
Immigrants Are Key to Filling US Labor Shortages, New Data Finds
https://immigrationimpact.com/2024/07/02/immigrants-fill-us-labor-shortages-map-the-impact/
Here is an interesting and useful literature review of peer reviewed studies showing immigration raises wages for all, from the libertarian think tank the Cato Institute: page 4 for labor related information:
https://www.carnegie.org/our-work/article/15-myths-about-immigration-debunked/
Whats more is that Trump’s threats to deport up to 15 million people from the country would be a disaster for domestic workers and the economy in general. This has been true for deportation heavy policies put forth by Democrats and Republicans alike, which have historically hurt workers and the economy.
Read this thorough review by the Peterson Institute for International Economics of a series of studies and reports showing that deportation policies by both Republicans and Democras throughout the history of the country have hurt, not helped domestic born workers. “A team led by Professor Chloe East of the University of Colorado published these results a few months ago in the most rigorous and selective academic journal for labor economists (published study; ungated pre-print). The study was carried out at the highest levels of quality and transparency.”
Here are some key take aways:
Mass deportation under the Obama Administration’s Secure Communities deportation program “substantially harmed US workers county by county, reducing both their employment and wages. The worst harms were inflicted on the least educated and most vulnerable US workers.”
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/721152
“The results are staggering. They imply that for every one million unauthorized immigrant workers seized and deported from the United States, 88,000 US native workers were driven out of employment.”
“When the Kennedy and Johnson administrations moved to exclude most Mexican workers from the US economy in the 1960s, this drastic action generated no new jobs or earnings.”
“When the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations led the mass deportation of roughly 400,000 Mexicans and Mexican-Americans, they harmed US workers’ employment and earnings in the most affected counties.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272721001948?via%3Dihub
“The Coolidge administration’s largest-ever crackdown against immigration actually harmed US worker’s employment by slashing industrial production, leaving fewer good jobs for everyone.”
“When US firms are randomly selected to access lawful visas for basic laborers, they do not swap out native workers; they expand operations with net job creation for US workers, particularly in rural areas.”
“When US farms get access to lawful visas for agricultural labor, they do not hire fewer natives but raise production to create numerous downstream jobs for natives.”
Helpful infographic and summary:
Immigrant workers are the backbone of many industries, making up 19% of the total United States workforce. This Labor Day, we recognize the powerful role immigrants play in the well-being of our nation. Immigrants' contributions are indispensable to all of the industries they support. In fact, a 2024 Institute On Taxation and Economic Policy study found that for every 1 million undocumented immigrants who are deported, public coffers stand to lose $8.9 BILLION in tax revenue.
Other recent immigrant labor studies
“In recent months, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has taken multiple opportunities [1] to declare his intention [2] to round up, detain, and deport every undocumented immigrant [3] living in the United States. According to estimates from the Center for Migration Studies (CMS) using the latest data available from the American Community Survey, [4] there were 10.9 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. in 2022. The Trump campaign and its surrogates cite target populations up to three times that size. [5] Implementing Trump’s plan would be a logistical nightmare and social tragedy, with consequences reverberating beyond the deportees and into the lives of over 20 million people living in mixed-status households, including 5.5 million U.S.-born children suddenly missing one or both parents.”
https://cmsny.org/high-growth-occupations-reliant-undocumented-immigrant-workers-nys/
“Immigrant Workers Help Florida Thrive. Anti-Immigrant Policies Threaten That.”
“Immigration Raids in Jackson, Mississippi, Five Years Later: An Evidence-Based Analysis to Dissuade Mass Deportation Policy and Promote a New Immigration Pathway”
https://cmsny.org/immigration-raids-jackson-mississippi-five-years-later/